Undated memorandum entitled "How Strong Is Mussolini?" Source not identified., [1938]

Enclosed with No. 1063. Mussolini's power not so great as it seems to superficial observer; chief among factors he cannot control are the Catholic Church and the Monarchy; at peak of popularity when Addis Ababa was occupied, popularity has waned since; the Italian masses have no clear idea of international situation, but disillusioned after Austrian Anschluss; Abyssinia a Pyrric victory which cost Italians about 2 billion dollars; Italian economy crippled; intervention in Spain cost many Italian lives and has not yet brought victory for Franco; Italy unable to oppose German advance in Central Europe; Fascism aims are (1) annexation of territories geographically a part of Italy, (2) hegemony in the Mediterranean, and (3) formation of colonial empire; Mussolini cannot realize aims without German alliance; has no rivals for personal power in Italy such as Hitler has in Goering, Goebbels, Himmler, and Ribbentrop; leading figures in Italy taken away from limelight; ruling clique composed of two Cianos, daughter of the Duce and her husband, Minister of Foreign Affairs, [Arturo] Bocchini, Chief of Police, [Achille] Storace, Secretary of Fascist Party, [Dino] Alfieri, Propaganda Minister, [Roberto] Garinacci, radical Party member; clique favors closer alliance with Germany, and less tolerance for Church, Jews, and Monarchy; opposition of Church to Fascism increasing; was opposed to Abyssinian war, to intervention in Spain, and to alliance with Germany; Church finds ally in Royal Court, chiefly Crown Prince Umberto; King has long resigned himself to position of phantom ruler; Fascist militia supports Mussolini and the Party; Generals of regular army, with some exceptions, oppose, and are in close contact with Church and Crown; many smaller groups oppose Mussolini and his policies, but not well organized and have no power; if all opposing forces could get together, political situation in Italy ripe for change.